(That’s about 2.6 Slumper/Jumpers per year.) It’s a pretty interesting list - especially in more recent seasons.Īt the moment, Herro’s Junior Jump season is looking like not just the best season of his young career, but one of the best bench scorer seasons in league history. Only 52 first-year players in our database went on to play at least 1,000 minutes in each of their first three seasons and record both a Slump and a Jump. If his strong Year 3 play continues, Herro will have the somewhat unique distinction of experiencing both a Sophomore Slump and a Junior Jump. (That’s about 6.8 Junior Jumpers per season.) And again, unsurprisingly, Herro is on track to join them: His total RAPTOR has jumped 3.0 points so far this season. By limiting the sample to those with at least 1,000 minutes played during their sophomore and junior seasons, the list was trimmed to 135. Among our sample of 1,005 junior seasons, 380 qualified. Any player who showed at least twice the expected improvement 4 from their second to third NBA seasons was deemed to have experienced a Junior Jump. We again calculated the minutes-weighted average rate of improvement by total RAPTOR for all players since 2000, but this time from Year 2 to Year 3. 3 One might even say he’s in the midst of a Junior Jump. In 33.8 minutes per game, Herro is averaging 21.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists a night, with 45-39-88 shooting splits. We’re seeing that in action this year, as Herro is off to a sparkling start in his third NBA season. Of course, a Sophomore Slump doesn’t necessarily tell us what we should expect from a player going forward. (That’s about 7.1 Sophomore Slumpers per season.) Unsurprisingly, Herro - with an increase from -1.50 RAPTOR to just -1.03 - was one of them. By limiting the sample to those with at least 1,000 minutes played during both their rookie and sophomore seasons, that list was trimmed to 149 players. Among our sample of 1,316 sophomore seasons, 623 qualified. We deemed any player who showed less than half the expected improvement 2 from their first to second NBA seasons to have experienced a Sophomore Slump. Using our historical RAPTOR database of both regular-season and playoff data, we calculated the minutes-weighted average rate of improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 by RAPTOR rating for all players who have debuted since the 1999-2000 season, through the 2020-21 season. And by his shooting numbers and several other measurements, that’s indeed what Herro had. If you could concoct a Sophomore Slump in a lab, it would probably look an awful lot like that. Regular season and playoff stats combined for Year 1 bubble and Year 2. Stats for Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat during his first year in the NBA, before and after the 2020 bubble, and his second year Season Herro’s shooting numbers dipped after the bubble
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